ST. LOUIS 30 - Tennessee 20--First home game for Rams, whose pass offense (top four WRs 39 recs. so far!) is much farther developed than the rebuilding attack of Titans, which has produced a combined two TDs so far. Worse yet for visitor, Tennessee is also rebuilding its secondary, and top draft pick CB "Pacman" Jones had pretty much been "Bust-man" (until 3 tackles last week), holding out, bad-mouthing some teammates, muffing punt after punt in preseason, and then being inactive for Game One. Titans (currently on 6-12 spread run) must count on the "generosity" of Mike Martz (Hey, it happened in S.F. in opener, didn't it?).
(99-TENNESSEE +3 24-21...SR: St. Louis 6-3)
PHILADELPHIA 27 - Oakland 13--With Donovan McNabb (5 TDP last week) showing bruised chest not bothering him that much, must side with consistent, balanced, and defensively-superior Philly. Kerry Collins (another fumble last week) still prone to break down when pressured. In battle of special talents (and huge egos) of Terrell Owens vs. Randy Moss, trust Eagles' well-oriented secondary to win the day. (01-Oakland +1' 20-10...SR: Oakland 5-4)
CHICAGO 23 - Cincinnati 16--Now that Kyle Orton has his first SU win under his belt (no turnovers vs. Detroit), prefer to take points with Chicago's rugged, speedy defense and improving ground game (Thos. Jones 139 YR vs. Lions, Cedric Benson 49). LB Urlacher much more of a force TY after LY's hamstring limitations, and Bears secondary one of the best. Same can't be said of Cincy's improving unit, despite its 7 takeways vs. Minnesota. Can't count on Carson Palmer (5 TDP TY) to find the going so easy on this field (Bears "under" 11-7 under Lovie).
(01-Chicago +1 24-0...SR: Cincinnati 4-3)
NY JETS 17 - Jacksonville 16--No line at our press time due to pending examination of Byron Leftwich after he was crunched several times at Indy last week. But performance of Jaguar defense at Indy (held Manning to 13 of 28, 10 points, no TDP, 1 int. at home) speaks loudly. Fred Taylor (81 YR) had another solid game at Indy. And Jets' own offense (still adapting to new off. coord. Heimerdinger) not exactly scary these days with only two meaningful TDs in two games.
(03-NY JETS -4 13-10...SR: EVEN 3-3)
MINNESOTA 23 - New Orleans 17--Fourth straight road game for Saints (including their exhibition finale at Oakland). And probably the last shot we'll give disappointing Minnesota for a while after 7 more giveaways last week at Cincy following 5 in opener. After trading Randy Moss, Minnesota worked much of offseason on designing a power ground game and ball-control passing scheme, only to see many of those ideas blow up when Pro Bowl C Matt Birk was lost. But it's time for TOs to regress to the mean. Perhaps "under" worth a look, as N.O. took an 8-1 "under" streak into their re-scheduled Monday nighter at NYG.
(04-Min. 38-N. OR. 31...M.29-25 M.28/188 N.23/159 M.26/38/2/417 N.22/38/1/336 M.1 N.0)
(04-Minnesota -3' 38-31...SR: Minnesota 18-7)
Carolina 20 - MIAMI 19--Interesting angle in this one, as Nick Saban is a former asst. (in Cleveland) and current friend of Bill Belichick, whose Pats just got whupped by the "Panthas." However, playoff-level Carolina one of the most curiously puzzling favorites in recent memory (5-15 L2+Ys). And, while Dolphin offense labored mightily last week at the Jets, Saban's defense didn't really let him down (17 points; now just 27 in two games). For sure, the "Fish" are improved.
(01-MIAMI -9 23-6...SR: Miami 2-0)
INDIANAPOLIS 34 - Cleveland 16--Wonder if Peyton Manning & off. coord. Tom Moore feel like they owe a whuppin' to new Browns' HC Romeo Crennel, who was the def. coord. of the Patriots, Indy's major roadblock in the AFC playoffs in recent years. Even if Colts don't hold a grudge, the still-learning, restructured, undermanned Cleveland defense is overmatched vs. Manning & Co., especially on the their speedy indoor track. Also, can't ignore the rapidly improving Indy defense (DT Simon, S Sanders, LBs Brackett & Cato). Browns only 6-11 last 17 as dog. (03-Indy -1 9-6...SR: Cleve. 15-12)
UNDER THE TOTAL BUFFALO 13 - Atlanta 10--Matchup of two very mobile QBs vs. two of the quickest defenses in the NFL. Must give credit to both front offices for recent draftees and to the coaches for having the confidence to filter faster but younger players into starting positions. But title-minded Falcons have now lost 5 straight games on the road. And their passing game not mature vs. the tight-covering, hard-charging defense of the Bills. who just might run enough with McGahee & mobile QB Losman to set up enough points to win (check Mike Vick's leg cramps and/or pull).
(01-ATLANTA -3' 33-30...SR: EVEN 4-4)
GREEN BAY 24 - Tampa Bay 17--Insiders say Jon Gruden has been smiling ever since he got an extensive look at RB Cadillac Williams, TE Alex Smith & K Matt Bryant after they reported to camp, giving the Bucs backfield speed, offensive balance, and the ability to "putt" again (i.e., convert completely makeable FGs once again). But it's desperation time for the fading Pack, which finds itself as a home dog for only the fourth time in the last 10+ seasons (G.B. 3-0). Packers still have enough punch with Favre (3 TDP, 2 ints. last week), A. Green, WR Driver & PK Longwell to get the nod here.
(03-Green Bay +3' 20-13...SR: Green Bay 30-18-1)
SEATTLE 28 - Arizona 24--Find it hard to have great confidence in Seattle team that is only 2-8 vs. spread last 10 at home. Hawks' revamped defense still seeking consistency. Arizona defense, meanwhile, gaining more bite, thanks to QB pressure generated by DEs Berry, Okeafor (8½ sacks LY with Seattle), Pace & speedy second-year LB Dansby. Matt Hasselbeck's sore arm didn't look so sore last week. Also, Cards young WR corps has helped Arizona go "over" 7 of last 9 away.
(04-ARIZ. 25-Sea. 17...A.16-12 A.37/127 S.14/69 A.22/36/1/189 S.14/41/4/188 A.1 S.0)
(04-SEA. 24-Ariz. 21...A.18-16 S.36/175 A.30/97 A.21/33/2/220 S.10/26/1/126 S.0 A.0)
(04-ARIZONA +6' 25-17, SEATTLE -7 24-21...SR: Arizona 7-5)
New England 26 - PITTSBURGH 22--Champion Pats facing their third straight foe with a big revenge motive (Raiders on opening night, Panthers last week, now 2004 AFC title game loser Steelers). But this time N.E. off a three-turnover loss in Carolina, which just means extra concentration this week by Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and all the other Super Bowl veterans. Yes, Pittsburgh pounded Pats LY in regular season, and they boast new speed in Willie Parker (272 YR). But remember how Belichick's defense mystified Ben Roethlisberger (15-0 SU in regular season!) LY in playoffs? We do.
(04-PITT 34-N. Eng. 20...P.25-19 P.49/221 N.6/5 N.25/43/2/243 P.18/24/0/196 P.0 N.2
(04-N. Eng. 41-PITT 27...P.19-18 P.37/163 N.32/126 P.14/24/3/225 N.14/21/0/196 N.0 P.1)
(04-PITTSBURGH +3 34-20, New England -3 41-27 (AFC Playoffs)...SR: Pittsburgh 13-8)
Dallas 23 - SAN FRANCISCO 13--Still have some faith in S.F.'s new 3-4 defense despite the shellacking it absorbed in Philly. Offense, however, is a 49er of a different color, as S.F. "rolled up" 34 YR in first game and only 58 in its second. And WRs of marginal NFL quality, even though Tim Rattay's "bad wing" of 2004 appears much better. Can stunting defense (10 sacks so far) contain Julius Jones & gain some takeaways from the pocket-locked Drew Bledsoe?
(02-San Francisco -4' 31-27...SR: San Francisco 16-13-1)
*SAN DIEGO 27 - NY Giants 17--It might not be the usual payback time for the Chargers (who last faced N.Y. seven years ago). But it is "hate time" for S.D. fans, who were greatly insulted when Eli Manning virtually refused to even talk with the Chargers after they made him the top pick in the draft in 2004, forcing a trade to the Giants. Manning has now thrown 8 TDP (plus any in Monday nighter vs. Saints) since taking over the controls LY, none of them on the road! CABLE TV--ESPN
(98-NY Giants -1' 34-16...SR: NY Giants 5-3)
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26
*DENVER 24 - Kansas City 17--Broncos managed to split with K.C. LY, despite losing the turnover battle in the series 3 to 1 in each game. Chiefs new additions on defense (including top pick LB D. Johnson, and free agents LB Bell, CB Surtain & S Knight) have been a big help so far. So have relatively "cooperative" opponents NYJ & Oakland (Raiders two key fumbles). But Broncos 4-1-1 vs. spread last 6 in this series, and RB Ron Dayne (8 for 44 rushing) added some valuable punch off bench last week. TV--ABC
(04-DENVER 34-K. City 24...D.24-15 D.35/202 K.28/167 D.18/29/2/211 K.16/32/1/151 D.1 K.0)
(04-K. CITY 45-Denver 17...D.24-22 K.36/162 D.20/132 D.23/41/2/270 K.17/23/0/266 K.0 D.1)
(04-DENVER -3 34-24, KANSAS CITY +2 45-17...SR: Kansas City 50-40)
Kansas City and Denver on Monday Night
Kansas City is 10-7 straight-up and 10-7 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
10-7 straight-up and 11-5-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Denver is 16-9-1 straight-up and 9-16-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football;
5-19 straight-up and 8-15-1 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
|