The Offshore Wire Forum > Offshore Gambling Information > Offshore Sportbooks > just how much chalk is too much chalk to lay |
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wantitall4moi
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Date Joined Aug 2005
Total Posts : 41
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Posted 9/24/2005 12:54 PM (GMT -5) |
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ML and spread are totally different animals. It is a lot easier to lay a big ML than it is to lay a big spread.
If USC was playing a div 1AA school
What kind of ML would you lay? Even if they played their whole bench they would win SU 100% of the time. But it would be a lot harder to lay 60 pts or more because they may or may not roll up the score on them. BIG BIG difference.
Same in baseball, people cry and say -250 is way too much. When in fact some match ups might be able to have -400 and still have value. Perfect example is KC and Cle. Cle is playing like possessed men, they are trying to run down Chi and look like they might do it. KC has been playing out the season for 6 months. So is -240 too much there? All they need to do is win. They have beaten KC like 10 straight games. They are 13-5 against them this season, and that includes the time Cle was sucking it up.
But of course in situation like this books can overvalue a team, so theoretically you are losing value. But a win is a win, so if you are laying 300 and collecting you are doing better than not betting at all. Obviously a loss hurts a lot more, but overall you have to bet the games that you think have value, no matter what the line.
What people do is look at games in too small a light. They worry about the individual games more than they should be worrying about an overall result. If a game or series of games all have value, no matter what the line or odds, take them, because if they truly have value then over the long haul you will make money. Where most people get hurt is by not when and where to take the value shots, or don't recognize when a -250 fave still holds value or when a -250 "should" actually be -200 but has been hyped the extra 50 cents.
Even then it still isn't a perfect science, you just have to hope that you make enough volume bets to overcome the bad beats here or there.
To automatically dismiss games because the lines or odds are too big is a sure way to be a losing player, and certainly not anything anyone that expects to make money gambling will do.
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Dr Black
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Date Joined Sep 2005
Total Posts : 201
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Posted 9/24/2005 1:45 PM (GMT -5) |
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If you see a game -250 that you feel is -200, you should be pounding the dog. +220 or +230 would be juicy.
Often there is great value against big spreads. |
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RPM
Welcome to TOW

      
Date Joined Jul 2005
Total Posts : 4570
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Posted 9/24/2005 3:05 PM (GMT -5) |
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in bases, i usually try to stay under at least -150 |
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