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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 8:45 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.

 

 

I wanted to tackle this week looking at some numbers that have been known to work over the years. Take a look at these numbers, which were calculated up to week 5.

 

.

Handicappers may want to take note that SU winners of NFL games are 61-11-2 ATS or 84.7% through the season's first five weeks.

Teams with the most rushing yards in a game are 50-21-2 ATS while teams with the most rushing attempts in a game are 55-15-2 ATS.

 

The obvious problem is picking what team will win straight up and who will do well rushing. I am going to focus on rushing as being a key for this week’s games and add some other variables to come up with a recipe for picking winners. This will include useful trends, information and just some good old fashioned luck. Let’s start with the early games.

 

New Orleans @ St. Louis -3 / 47

 

The big news with this game is the fact that Bulger will be out for two weeks, but it looks as though Martin is more than capable of taking this team in to the end zone on more than one occasion and how will the soft defense of the saints stop them? I am not sure that will be the game plan of the Saints, instead like every week the plan will be to just outscore them.

 

The Rams team is more than confident that Martin can do well but are they just using smoke and mirrors? This is from the St. Louis local newspaper: "Jamie's a professional . . . a character individual and a good football player," Vitt said. "We're going to do everything we can to get him ready."

Martin's success in Bulger's stead Monday night was mixed. He hit on 17 of 21 passes, including 11 in a row during one stretch. But he guided the offense to only 172 yards and a mere 11 points - eight coming on a late 9-yard pass to tight end Cam Cleeland, plus a two-point conversion, long after the deal had been sealed.

 

"I made a couple of stupid plays, and you can't do that against a good defense," said Martin, who threw for 134 yards and had a passer rating of 69.5.

He said offensive coordinator Steve Fairchild, who called the plays in the absence of head coach Mike Martz, didn't try to simplify the attack with Bulger sidelined.

"We did the same things," Martin said. "We got some stuff early on them, and they adjusted. They run one or two defenses and do a good job with it. And we had the turnovers. That kills you."

Martin, who last started a game in 2002, said he realized that he could be the No. 1 quarterback this week - and perhaps for several more afterward. "Yeah, who knows?" he said. "I prepare like it anyway, so I'll come to work and get ready."

 

He did not really impress in the second half and it is only his fourth start so the jitters have to be there.

 

A look at the rushing numbers that I briefly discussed before shows that the Saints have the edge on running the ball; in fact they are 7th overall in the NFL. Even with Deuce out the thunder and lighting attack of Smith and Stecker looked good last week against the Falcons.  The Saints are way ahead of the Rams when it comes to rushing attempts per game which is usually good when it comes to winning ATS.

 

The saints have been through allot of turmoil this year so they should be alright coming out on the road again this week. They also have some decent trends backing them up in this game.

 

New Orleans: 8-1 ATS after allowing 30+ points

 

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a Loss over NFC South opponent they are 9-3 ATS

 

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as a Road team - Coming off a 2 game losing streak they are 10-6-1 ATS

 

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as a Road team - Coming off a 2 game over they are 10-6-1 ATS

 

When NEW ORLEANS SAINTS team played as a Road team - Coming off a Home loss they are 31-20-4

 

One last thing to note is that teams coming off Monday Nights have not fared well this year and the Rams have a track record of falling down as well.

 

When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Home team - Coming off Monday Night Lost they are 3-6-1 ATS

 

When ST. LOUIS RAMS team played as a Home team - Coming off a 14-17 point loss they are 4-9-1 ATS

 

Finally some more trends for some icing on the cake:

 

Saints are 13-3 ATS L13 away vs the Rams
Saints are 6-1 ATS as road dog after a straight-up loss as a dog

 

And the Rams

 

Rams 1-6 ATS L/7 overall

Rams are 3-7 L/10 playing outside of their division

 

The Play here is on the Saints +3 I am not playing the total but if anything I would lean on the under 47 with Martin’s  performance on Monday night.

 Sneaksscool  

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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 9:14 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.

Green Bay -1.5 / 45 @ Minnesota

 

Who knows which way to go with either of these teams this year? The Packers have been beaten buy lousy teams and then put 52 on the board the next week. The Vikings go from boat trouble to getting blown out by the Bears, so who disappoints this week?

 

The Vikings are in a great spot this week that I have always liked to take advantage of throughout the years I have been betting in the NFL. It’s betting on a team that was in the spotlight for a very miserable performance. The Ravens did this against the Lions, they played so poorly and racked up so many penalties all the talk was about a coach getting fired. The Ravens responded by drubbing the Browns. The Vikings are a bit different as they have much more to worry about, but should still respond the same way. This team was embarrassed against the Bears and will respond this week.

 

The Vikings also have an inside edge this information courtesy of the star tribune

 

A few random thoughts.

That's what Mike Tice expected to get when free safety Darren Sharper volunteered to offer some tips about his former team Wednesday. A day later, Sharper handed the Vikings coach four pages of handwritten notes on the Green Bay Packers. Front and back.

And that turned out to be his CliffsNotes version.

"I have about 20 pages actually, but I tried to consolidate it and slim it down a little bit," Sharper said. "Hopefully, some of the stuff we can use to help us win and prepare us for this game. I just want to try to pass it on a little bit because I know on the other side they have some knowledge of what I like to do."

This inside information will help the Vikings respond and prepare for a Packers team that has had a rough go of dome games. They are just 21-38 ATS the last 59 on the road on turf and a woeful 2-7 ATS in the last 9 against the Vikings.

 

The Vikings offense will respond very well against a weak Packer defense, and they have a history of doing well after two unders in a row as evident by these numbers.

 

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a Home team - Coming off a 2 game under they are 12-6-2 ATS

 

When MINNESOTA VIKINGS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - Coming off a 2 game under they are 10-2 ATS and the OVER is 11-2 ATS

 

Finally the Packers are not good road favorites especially in this spot. When GREEN BAY PACKERS team played as Road team as a Favorite - Coming off a Home win they are just 13-26-2 ATS.

 

The Packers are just not good enough to be road favorites in a place they have a history of playing badly in when they were a good team against a team they have a bad ATS record against. I do not see the defense for Green Bay coming to play and I look for the Vikings to roll. The play is Vikings +1.5. Staying away from the total but the only way to play it is the over.

 

 

Sneaksfreaked

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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 9:36 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.

Indy @ Texans

 

 

SF @ Washington

 

 

I am not going to spend too much time on either of these games, mainly because I believe there are other games more worthy of putting your money on.  

 

In this first game I like the Texans. They are a home divisional dog and after last week against the Seahawks they showed the public why no one should play this dog even getting double digit numbers. All the more reason to take a shot on the Texans at home in this spot. The Colts could not possibly get up for this game and are coming in on a short week after playing the Rams on Monday night and even though they have a bye next week, you know they have an eye on the Patriots and some sweet revenge. These trends also have to make yu think twice about dropping the big number with the Colts.

Colts are 0-2 ATS L/2 visits to Houston.

Texans are 7-2 ATS at home vs .600 or better opposition.

Texans 6-1 ATS L/7 at home vs divisional opponent

 

I am passing on this game but if I had to I would take the Texans plus the points and the under.

 

In the second game the Niners have to travel coast to coast to face the Redskins and Alex Smith will get his first start on the road. This is not the best place for him to start and I would expect a package of blitzes from the skins as the try and rattle the youngster. Before you throw the kitchen sink on the skins, keep in mind they do have the Giants and the Eagle on deck and so may not look top open the flood gates here. They also have played very close games all year with the last 7 games falling within 7 points. This game has ugly written all over it and is a must pass for me.

 

If I was going to play this game it would be on the Over and the niners, but no play here.

 

Sneakslol

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RPM
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   Posted 10/22/2005 9:45 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
i love the statistical ats info you have man!~

"Handicappers may want to take note that SU winners of NFL games are 61-11-2 ATS or 84.7% through the season's first five weeks.

Teams with the most rushing yards in a game are 50-21-2 ATS while teams with the most rushing attempts in a game are 55-15-2 ATS."


amazing how many people forget that picking the strait up winner, and paying attention to the fact that the ground game is SOO important.
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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 9:53 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
RPM,
 
Your right that those numbers often go unnoticed, the problem is picking that straight up winner. I actually joined a pool where all you had to do is pick three staright up winners every week and it is harder than it looks.....smile
 
Here is some more info:
 

Pittsburgh Vs Cincinnati

 

Well this is it the measuring stick that the Bengals have been waiting for all year to prove they are for real. After all if they beat the Steelers they will be first in line for a shot at the division crown. It will show the Bengals can play physical ball as well as if Palmer can play well against a tough defense. If you r a guy that plays teams based on rushing stats you would be surprised to hear that the Bengals actually have a better rushing offense than the Steelers but the Steelers have a better rushing defense.

 

This is easily the biggest game of the season for the Bengals and they are watching what they say so they do not give the Steelers anything to get pumped about and they are nervous, according to these quotes I dug up from the Cincinnati enquirer and the post.

 

"It's an important game," Lewis said. "I don't think you can run or hide from it. But there will be a next important one after this one and so forth on down the line.

"So you don't have to get too caught up in all that. ... It's a division game. They're the defending champions, the best team in our division, and we're playing them at home."

"Everybody is wound up tight," said Levi Jones, the Bengals' starting left offensive tackle, as he walked briskly through the room. "It's just that week for us - that biggest rivalry week."

Even typically outspoken wide receiver Chad Johnson refrained from offering anything that might end up tacked to a Steelers bulletin board.

"(Steelers week) means black and gold against black and orange," he said.

"It's going to be a big game. I know this city is going to go crazy. It's going to be crazy out there on the field Sunday."

The crowd will be ready for this and the Bengals will be as well. I expect them to come out tight and then work into a flow. The Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in the last seven games overall and are the best in the NFL when it comes to holding onto the ball which is very important when it comes to a big game.

 

The Steelers will not have consistency when they come into this game. They are going to start Big Ben although he is still hurting and look for Bettis to get the ball more because Parker has been struggling.

 

When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as a Road team - Coming off a 4-7 point loss they are 3-7 ATS

 

This one will go down to the wire but I look for the home team to rise to the occasion and get the biggest win to date. I am passing on the total but I would take a close look at the under as big games and playoff atmosphere’s often equal unders. Bengals -1.5

 

 

Sneaksturn

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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 11:19 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.

San Diego @ Philly

 

The candidates keep rolling in for possible game of the week as this one has barn burner written all over it, but don’t look now I think the odds maker has the bait hook out there for you to bite on.

 

Before I talk about the line let me break down the game. The Chargers have to make the west coast / east coast trip which usually spells doom for a team, but the Chargers have been playing outstanding football, led by LTY and the running attack. If we are looking at rushing numbers and the stat I have in my first post about teams that run the ball do well ATS the chargers would have to be the play hands down as they are fourth in the league rushing the ball, while the Eagles are dead last. The Chargers are also third against the rush, while the Eagles are still at the bottom of the pile in the NFL.

 

If your looking at rushing stats alone the Chargers are the play, but I looked deeper of course and found some other interesting things. The Eagles are well rested and off a bye week after getting torn up against the Cowboys, while the Chargers are going coast to coast and are in the middle of a divisional sandwich.

 

With such a low number let’s look at how both teams do SU in certain situations starting with the Chargers.

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a Road team - Coming off a 2 game under they are just 7-17 SU

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog - Coming of a score more than 20 points in back to back games they are 5-10 SU

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a 2 game under they are 6-16 SU

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - Coming of a score more than 20 points in back to back games they are 5-11 SU

 

When SAN DIEGO CHARGERS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - Coming off a Win over AFC West opponent they are 3-8 SU

 

There are also some serious league trends that are going against the Chargers to win SU.

 

When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a Road win they are 138-298 SU

 

When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a Win over AFC West opponent they are 74-147 SU

 

When ANY NFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - Coming off a 2 game under they are 70-141 SU

 

When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming of a score more than 20 points in back to back games they are 282-591 SU

 

When ANY NFL Team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Underdog - Coming off a Win over AFC West opponent they are 29-58 SU

 

So will the well rested Eagles be able to take advantage of this? Well for starters they are 9-2 ATS in October off a bye week, 4-1 ATS in the last 5 at home and the #1 passing offense in the NFL. The Chargers have been known to get down for non divisional games as they are just 0-5 ATS in the last five as a dog in that spot.

 

SO what about the line, well it seems like the odds makers are keeping the hook on the 3 to get Charger money with the thought process being it could come in handy if this game is close, I just don’t think it will be.

 

The Eagles also have these numbers backing them up today. When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand they are 15-7-1 ATS

 

When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as a Home team - Coming off a 2 Road stand they are 21-11 ATS

 

Let’s also not forget that the winner of the game straight up so far this year has been solid ATS which leads me to some more great numbers for Philly.

 

When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 2 Road stand they are 19-3-1 SU

 

When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite - Coming off a 1 game losing streak they are 12-5 SU

 

When PHILADELPHIA EAGLES team played as Home team as a Favorite - Coming off a 1 game under they are 23-9 SU

 

This is the strongest game on the board for the early set of the NFL games. Eagles -3.5 this game will also fly over the total as the Eagles score over 30 points on their own.

 

 

Sneaks hop

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Sneaks
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   Posted 10/22/2005 11:45 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Detroit @ Cleveland

This game has gotten some decent press this week with the rumors and QB controversy in Detroit. Even at this point the Mooch has tried to keep the starter for this week quiet.

This is from the Detroit Free Press:

Mariucci said he hadn't decided whether to start Joey Harrington or Jeff Garcia at quarterback and had no timetable for doing so. There is a strategic advantage to waiting because the Browns have to prepare for two quarterbacks instead of one, but the main reason is Garcia's health.
Garcia practiced fully this week for the first time since suffering a fractured left fibula and sprained left ankle in the exhibition finale Sept. 2 at Buffalo. He split snaps Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with Harrington.
"I wanted him to have an accumulated effect on his leg to see what kind of response he would have to this activity over the three practices," Mariucci said. "Does it get progressively more sore? Or does it freshen back up here? That's why we're working through this."
Mariucci said Garcia's soreness had decreased but wasn't gone, and he wanted to talk to Garcia and the training staff.
The decision is Mariucci's, not ownership's or management's.
"We talk all the time," Mariucci said. "But the discussions have gone, 'Do what you've got to do. Make the call.' "
The uncertainty doesn't seem to be an issue for Garcia and Harrington.
"Both guys are experienced enough to be in the mind-set of, 'I'm playing. I have to be ready to win,' " Mariucci said. "And they both are there mentally. ... I feel that both of them are ready, willing and able to play very well in this game."
Garcia declined to talk to the media. But Harrington, whose streak of 37 consecutive starts is in jeopardy, said both quarterbacks had a really good week of practice.
"Wherever the decision goes," Harrington said, "I believe this offense will be ready."
Also of note is the amount of injuries the Lions have. Left tackle Jeff Backus has a high left ankle sprain. He has an impressive record of durability -- 49 straight starts at Michigan, 69 straight with the Lions -- and returned to practice Friday. But if he doesn't think he can do his job, he won't play.
"I'm not going to hurt the team, just going out there to show people that I'm tough," Backus said.
If Backus can't play, reserve Kyle Kosier will start in his place -- and right guard Damien Woody will be ready to move over in an emergency. Woody said he hadn't played tackle since high school, and even then, he played right tackle. But Mariucci said Woody would be a better option than Victor Rogers, who just rejoined the practice squad.
Neither starting wide receiver will play. Charles Rogers has two games to go on his suspension for substance abuse; Roy Williams has a strained quadriceps.
That leaves Kevin Johnson, Mike Williams and Scottie Vines. Glenn Martinez might come up from the practice squad for the second straight week, cornerback R.W. McQuarters could be used, and tight end Marcus Pollard has learned some wide receiver routes.
Fullback Cory Schlesinger will make his season debut after sitting out with a fractured fibula, but Paul Smith will start.
Running back Kevin Jones will play despite a shoulder injury, but he will wear a harness and won't be able to reach up to catch passes.
With all that being said I really believe the best option in this game would be to pass on it, but I am going to put a side on every game and for this one I am going to go with the Lions.

The problem is I want to see Garcia start because I think it will ignite the offense but at the same time if Harrington starts I look for him to play well knowing he is on a short lease.

Of course there are also some trends backing up this call.


Lions are 8-2 ATS a road dogs in October off SU loss

Browns are 9-20 ATS L/29 at home with a Total of between 35.5 and 38

Also both of these offenses are miserable and that is a sign that I want to take the points whenever I can, and hopefully the offense will get a kick on the Lions side of things.

More info backing the Lions:
When DETROIT LIONS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a 2 Home stand they are 20-11 ATS
When DETROIT LIONS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a Home loss as a Underdog they are 14-9-1 ATS
When DETROIT LIONS team played as Road team as a Underdog - Coming off a lost on grass they are 19-11 ATS

When CLEVELAND BROWNS team played as a Home team - Coming off a Loss over AFC North opponent they are 3-6 ATS
Taking the points and the Lions +3 not touching the total but if I did I would take the under.
 
Sneaks smhair
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RPM
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   Posted 10/22/2005 11:54 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
i like the lions this week too....
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