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raiders72001
Registered Member

Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1205

Posted 8/20/2005 5:10 AM (GMT -5)

The Baseball Formula Newsletter
Volume 4, Number 132

Plays for:
Sat August 20

Dogs Formula:
YTD Performance:
+ 5.96 units (based on 1 unit per play)

Yesterday's Recap:
(-) 2.90 units (based on 1 unit per play)

American League:
--Boston won
--Toronto was the game time dog at Wagerline and they lost
--Batlimore was the game time dog at Wagerline and they lost in extra innings. Their bullpen gives up a good lead.

National League:
--Washington/ New York - neither was the dog at Wagerline at game time (both were -104)
--Los Angeles lost
--Arizona lost

Game Times are Eastern Standard

Dog Plays are in CAPS

----------------------------------------------------

Dogs Formula

See below for our line grading policy. It will explain how we are coming up with our official plays each day and how we are grading our official plays. Or re-read the "Dogs Line Policy" email that was sent out.

===========

Notes:

-----

KC legendary futility streak count: 19 games. Tonight, vs. Oakland's Zito
AL record: 21 games, Baltimore
MLB record: 23 games, Philadelphia 1961

================

Final Line Grading Policy for Marginal Dogs:

In the event that the play changes from the overnight newsletter, the closing line at Wagerline.com will be used to grade the game:
http://www.wagerline.com/mlb.asp

The exception to this is if Wagerline mistakenly posts no line for the game (NL) or when Wagerline mistakenly posts the game twice. In such cases, Pinnacle's closing line will be used as an emergency backup source.

When we refer to "Pinnacle's closing line," we're referring to the posted closing line at theRx.com for the line from Pinnacle sportsbook that is that webpage.

Here's where you will find those emergency backup closing lines:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/lines.html?sport=mlb&refresh=0.=0

================

Check out the underdog lines at Bowmans.com and Pinnacle to improve your results.

American League:

Sunday's newsletter will be delivered by 10AM EST Sunday morning. Monday things will be back to normal.

BOSTON +104 @ Los Angeles, 4PM...Official play will be on Los Angeles if they are the game time dog at Wagerline. Otherwise, play remains on Boston.
BOS: B. Arroyo (10-7, 4.28)
LAA: E. Santana (6-5, 4.62)

BALTIMORE +120 @ Cleveland, 7PM...Indians have the slight edge with the pitching. We're not sure how the O's will respond as they have been very unpredictable lately. But, overall they are playing better the past week.
BAL: R. López (12-6, 4.68)
CLE: C. Lee (12-4, 4.03)

TORONTO +100 @ Detroit, 7PM...Official play will be on Detroit if they are the game time dog at Wagerline. Otherwise, play remains on Toronto.

McGowan is unproven, but Johnson is very beatable.
TOR: D. McGowan (1-0, 5.95)
DET: J. Johnson (7-9, 4.24)

National League:

SAN FRANCISCO +203 @ St. Louis, 1:15PM...Certainly our longshot of the day. The Giants suffered a demoralizing loss last night as they gave up 5 runs in the bottom of the 9th. They had Carpenter squarely beaten.
SF: K. Correia (2-3, 4.91)
STL: M. Morris (12-5, 3.83)

Milwaukee @ HOUSTON +122, 7PM...Astros have been a solid home dog all season- it's their road play as a dog that has been so atrocious. Rodriguez is a concern however, and his record indicates tremendous run support.
MIL: B. Sheets (8-9, 3.54)
HOU: W. Rodriguez (8-5, 6.09)

ARIZONA +127 @ Cincinnati, 7PM...D'Backs just can't seem to turn it on at the right time this year. They have lost 4 units the past 3 weeks. Prior to that, they were performing better than most NL dogs.
ARI: J. Vázquez (9-12, 4.85)
CIN: A. Harang (8-11, 3.89)

WASHINGTON +171 @ New York, 7PM...Pretty good line for Hernandez. Weak hitting Nats are likely to have trouble with Martinez. The Nats' schedule from here on out is brutal, and the only easy series they have is against San Francisco for 3 games in September. We expect them to fade and perhaps fade pretty sharply.
WAS: L. Hernández (14-5, 3.45)
NYM: P. Martínez (12-5, 2.96

Chicago @ Colorado, 8PM...Colorado is currently the dog - NO PLAY ON COLORADO. Cubs will be the official play if they are the game time dog at Wagerline.
CHC: G. Rusch (5-5, 4.28)
COL: A. Cook (1-1, 5.16)

--------------------------------------------------

======================================

Our comments next to some the plays are just our opinions. Our opinions do not factor into the formula. Playing dogs can be a little daunting at times. Given that, some of our comments next to the games can sound slightly worrisome.

The natural tendency in wagering is to think that the favorite is going to win, which is why they are the favorite. But, we do have a long term edge here with this formula.

Our opinions on the games can throw some people off. But it bears repeating - our subjective opinions are just that - opinions. We go with the plays the formula is giving us. Our personal opinion of the plays do not factor into the formula.

When the formula puts up a play such as Toronto to beat Boston, it doesn't necessarily mean it expects to win THAT game. But the formula has demonstrated in the past that it has a long-term edge in winning just enough of those games to make a difference. The value lies in hundreds of such dog games spread out over a long period of time. That is why we stress taking a long-term approach with this formula.

======================================

For international subscribers, and those not too familiar with baseball wagering: In blue links, you see the starting pitchers and their YTD individual records (won-lost, followed by their E.R.A. (Earned Run Average). Clicking those links will give you some information and stats on those pitchers. Starting pitching is a key determinant in the outcome of the game.

======================================

Grading Policy:
At this time, the closing lines from Pinnacle are
used as the benchmark in determining which teams
are dogs.

Here's where you will find those closing lines:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/lines.html?sport=mlb&refresh=0.=0

On that webpage, Pinnacle is listed as the first sportsbook
on the left.

Lines are from PinnacleSports.com at time
of publishing or in the event that the play changes
because of a line change, the closing line at
Pinnacle's closing lines will be used to grade the game.

We only consider the official plays to be
the selected teams that are dogs at game time
(the closing line).

In some cases, the lines may shift so that the dog
at the time of publishing becomes the favorite
by game time and visa versa. Usually this does
not happen, but does occasionally if the line
is marginal early on.

Remember, only dogs are plays--never
favorites for this formula.

Some subscribers choose to just keep the overnight
dog that is published in the newsletter.

Recommendations:
All plays are ACTION plays unless noted otherwise
(this means that pitchers don't have to be selected)

Make sure you play the moneyline, and not the
runline (the spread) for this formula.

Note: We highly recommend
wagering the same amount for each
play, and playing the games to "risk"
that amount, rather than to "win" that
amount.

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