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bigboydan
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   Posted 8/27/2005 5:52 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
i'd like to get people thoughts on this subject.
 
i for one don't wanna pay the extra vig for it and, the math on that mattering doesn't make it worth doing imhoo


a good capper is only as good as his info.

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RPM
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   Posted 8/27/2005 7:35 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
it depends on what price you are paying, and what number you are buying on or off of....
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coconutman
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   Posted 8/27/2005 11:04 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Never bought one yet.


"Shallow men believe in luck. Strong men believe in cause and effect." -Ralph Waldo Emerson.

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base
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   Posted 8/27/2005 12:56 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
If I really think a game is going to land on the 3 I will buy both sides!

Crazy?

It comes in more than you would think.
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cossi
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   Posted 8/27/2005 2:01 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
I'll admit I'm not a "smart" bettor that takes into account all the math, but 3 in football is the only number I've ever bought to. I don't do it often that I remember but I know I hate losing a -3.5 or +2.5
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FISHHEAD
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   Posted 8/27/2005 3:09 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
If you are to pay 10 cents or more, NEVER buy off/on nothing but the numbers 3 and 7 in football.
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RPM
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   Posted 8/27/2005 3:32 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Fish,

if i remember correctly 20 cents on or off 3 or 7 is ok right?
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bigboydan
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   Posted 8/27/2005 4:05 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
rpm, i think it's a 25 cent line.


a good capper is only as good as his info.

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cossi
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   Posted 8/27/2005 6:03 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
cool - nice rule-of-thumb info - thanks!

(25 cents if buying on/off 3 or 7)
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onlòóker
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   Posted 8/27/2005 6:57 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Never bought, not sure I will. Only time will tell... :p
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drunkguy
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   Posted 8/27/2005 7:33 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
RPM said...
Fish,

if i remember correctly 20 cents on or off 3 or 7 is ok right?


20 cents off 3 is standard, and you should buy it

10 cents off 7 is standard, and you should buy it. Definitely not 2o cents though

and this applies to NFL
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bigboydan
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   Posted 8/28/2005 3:07 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
drunkguy said...
RPM said...
Fish,

if i remember correctly 20 cents on or off 3 or 7 is ok right?


20 cents off 3 is standard, and you should buy it

10 cents off 7 is standard, and you should buy it. Definitely not 2o cents though

and this applies to NFL
ok, lets say that you buy on or off the #3, how would you both personaly factor in the money line on this game to justify buying it on or off  the points.


a good capper is only as good as his info.

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raiders72001
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   Posted 8/28/2005 3:12 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
Rough figures. A team wins by 3, 15% of the time. When the line is 3 it lands on 3, 9 % of the time. The game lands on or 1/2 away from the line 5-6% of the time.
 
Numbers that hit most often
 
3
7
6
10
4
14
1
2
17
11
 
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RPM
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   Posted 8/28/2005 3:35 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
raiders,

are they listed in order of how often they hit?
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raiders72001
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   Posted 8/28/2005 4:53 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
My numbers show a little different but this is from some one else. These below are better as they only include years with the 2 point conversion.

3 17.3%
7 9.7%
10 6.9%
4 5.6%
1 4.4%
6 4.4%
14 4.4%
13 4.0%
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mdmike
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   Posted 8/28/2005 9:50 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
never buy anything if your on the dog
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RPM
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   Posted 8/28/2005 10:18 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
mdmike,

why not buy to the 3 on a 2.5 line if you like the dog? wouldnt that be just as worth it as buying off the three as the fav?
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cossi
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   Posted 8/28/2005 12:45 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
drunkguy said...
RPM said...
Fish,

if i remember correctly 20 cents on or off 3 or 7 is ok right?


20 cents off 3 is standard, and you should buy it

10 cents off 7 is standard, and you should buy it. Definitely not 2o cents though

and this applies to NFL
thanks for the clarification
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bigboydan
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   Posted 8/28/2005 7:03 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
i still would like to hear everyones thought on this subject from a money line point a view opposed to just buying the 1/2 point.


a good capper is only as good as his info.

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drunkguy
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   Posted 8/28/2005 7:20 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
bigboydan said...
i still would like to hear everyones thought on this subject from a money line point a view opposed to just buying the 1/2 point.


not sure what you're asking?
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bigboydan
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   Posted 8/28/2005 7:26 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
DG, lets say the lines 2 1/2 and you wanna buy it either upto 3. but, at the same time you were pondering the thought of maybe playing the money line instead. how would you factor in the value of that half point in this spot.


a good capper is only as good as his info.

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jwunderdog
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   Posted 8/29/2005 9:26 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
I see what he is saying,with 1 and 2 being pretty dead numbers maybe you should be comparing the cost of ML dog to buying to 3 instead of 2.5 to 3. in other words Ml dog of 2.5 +120 compared to dog +3 -130. 99% of the time I bet the ml dog when less then 3, I very rarely pay for 3 and never take +2.5 -110.

Post Edited (jwunderdog) : 8/29/2005 9:33:11 AM (GMT-4)

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drunkguy
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   Posted 8/29/2005 11:45 AM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
oh, ok I get it now

don;t have numbers in front of me but maybe I will take a look tongiht and post
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Jerseymike
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   Posted 8/29/2005 6:50 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
I only buy points when betting a parlay.
10 and 14 are key numbers for me.


Baseball players are smarter than football players. How often do you see a baseball team penalized for too many men on the field?

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cossi
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   Posted 8/29/2005 6:56 PM (GMT -5)    Quote This PostAlert An Admin About This Post.
jwunderdog said...
I see what he is saying,with 1 and 2 being pretty dead numbers maybe you should be comparing the cost of ML dog to buying to 3 instead of 2.5 to 3. in other words Ml dog of 2.5 +120 compared to dog +3 -130. 99% of the time I bet the ml dog when less then 3, I very rarely pay for 3 and never take +2.5 -110.
I typically do the same (if line is under 3 and I'm on the dog, I'll take the ML), but I can't say my success rate has been spectacular.
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