| The Offshore Wire Forum > Offshore Gambling Information > Offshore Sportbooks > why do people buy a 1/2 point |
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Judge
Dispute Arbitration Panel Member
      
Date Joined Aug 2005
Total Posts : 373
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Posted 8/29/2005 7:40 PM (GMT -5) |
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I don't buy points. Do take advantage of Rio's free half point. Play with them when line is 1,4,6, or 10.
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wantitall4moi
Registered Member
Date Joined Aug 2005
Total Posts : 41
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Posted 8/29/2005 7:56 PM (GMT -5) |
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I have numbers going all the way back to 1985. On another source I have back to 1991. But basically it is best to simply go back to 1994 when they reinstitued the 2 pt conversion. Since than fav lined -3 have won by exactly 3 about 9.6% of the time. At my other source they are actually slightly higher at 10.8% That is a median of 10.2%, so it is fair to say that 10% is pretty accurate.
HOWEVER, there were 3 years in that time frame that were WELL ABOVE 10%, and the rest of the years were well below, a couple of them were under 6%. So it all depends on how one wants to look at it. I think the expectaion is around 7%, with a few anomoliy years thrown in to get it up to 10.
When you are trying to figure out these things it is very difficult, so the "safest" way isto think of it "worst case", and go from there.
As for other numbers, they should never even be considered for buying on or off. Three is by far and a way the best, and even it is borderline worth it. |
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raiders72001
Registered Member
Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1215
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Posted 8/30/2005 12:42 AM (GMT -5) |
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| Wantitall- Do you have any info taking the pointspread and total into consideration? I would think that buying 1/2 point with a low total such as 34 would be a better buy than a total of 51 although I don't have the data. |
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asabace
Registered Member
Date Joined Jul 2005
Total Posts : 224
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Posted 8/30/2005 11:02 AM (GMT -5) |
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| i agree if youre taking the dog on a +2.5 line, you might as well take the money line its usually around +140, and with raiders stats you see 1 point games come in only 4% of the time and 2 point games even less...so its worth taking the chance EVEN +140 compared to +2.5 -110 |
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FISHHEAD
Registered Member
Date Joined Jun 2005
Total Posts : 182
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Posted 8/30/2005 11:55 AM (GMT -5) |
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You buy HALF POINTS when it is MATHEMATICALY plausible to do so.
Plain and simple
-Fishhead- |
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RPM
Welcome to TOW
  
Date Joined Jul 2005
Total Posts : 5058
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Posted 8/30/2005 2:03 PM (GMT -5) |
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| but how do you figure if it is "mathmatically plausable"? |
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wantitall4moi
Registered Member
Date Joined Aug 2005
Total Posts : 41
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Posted 8/30/2005 5:10 PM (GMT -5) |
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There is no way to prove it is EVER mathematiclally plausible, even at its best 3 is barely worth a dime. In some results it isn't even worth 8 cents. Butg people claim it is worth 20-25 cents. They obviously buy into the hype and legend that surrounds that number.
I haven't even touched on the fact that there are about 12 teams in the league that have maybe one push on 3 lined games. Those 12 teams account for over 200 games and they have a cumulative 14 pushes combined. Not to mention there are 2 or 3 (depending on the source) that have NEVER pushed on a game lined 3 as a dog or a fave. That is another 50-60 games (don't have them all in front of me at this time) SO there is half the league with about 300 games and about 14 pushes on lined 3, that is less than a 5% probability rate.
There are on the other hand 7 teams that have about 25% of all the pushes in games lined 3. I posted this a long time ago, and those teams still continue to make up the predominant pushes. Not saying it is evindence one way or the other, but it cetainly is better to break down results team by team rather than painting the whole league with a broad brush. Definately gives an edge. If I see Cle in a game lined 3, and they have never had a push in a game lined 3, it surely won't make me think they WON'T push, but it surely makes it easier thinking they might not.
That is the logocal flaw, future results cannot be determined by past results in sporting events, but when I see the same temas year in and year out pushing on the 3, I have to think it has some basis, just like when I see teams go year in and year out without a push, I have to think the same thing.
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raiders72001
Registered Member
Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1215
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Posted 8/30/2005 6:40 PM (GMT -5) |
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Here's the math using Wantit's 9.6% of time landing on 7.
Play 100 games you win 50 and lose 50.
@-110 at 6.5
W - L = profit/loss
50 - 1.10(50) = -5 loss
buy 6.5 to 7 for 10cents
you push 9.6 games.
Win 50
Lose 50 - 9.6 = 40.4
W - L = P/L
50 - 1.20(40.4) = 1.52 profit
It's worth it to buy 10 cents from 6.5 to 7.
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cossi
Registered Member
Date Joined Aug 2005
Total Posts : 311
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Posted 8/30/2005 6:41 PM (GMT -5) |
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| But what is intended by "mathematically plausible"? I can always buy a half-point. But when is it "plausible" mathematically? |
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raiders72001
Registered Member
Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1215
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Posted 8/30/2005 6:43 PM (GMT -5) |
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| If you can buy 3 or 7 for 10 cents always do it. |
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drunkguy
Registered Member
 
Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 945
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Posted 8/30/2005 7:01 PM (GMT -5) |
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wantitall4moi said...
I haven't even touched on the fact that there are about 12 teams in the league that have maybe one push on 3 lined games. Those 12 teams account for over 200 games and they have a cumulative 14 pushes combined. Not to mention there are 2 or 3 (depending on the source) that have NEVER pushed on a game lined 3 as a dog or a fave. That is another 50-60 games (don't have them all in front of me at this time) SO there is half the league with about 300 games and about 14 pushes on lined 3, that is less than a 5% probability rate.
There are on the other hand 7 teams that have about 25% of all the pushes in games lined 3. I posted this a long time ago, and those teams still continue to make up the predominant pushes. Not saying it is evindence one way or the other, but it cetainly is better to break down results team by team rather than painting the whole league with a broad brush. Definately gives an edge. If I see Cle in a game lined 3, and they have never had a push in a game lined 3, it surely won't make me think they WON'T push, but it surely makes it easier thinking they might not.
That is the logocal flaw, future results cannot be determined by past results in sporting events, but when I see the same temas year in and year out pushing on the 3, I have to think it has some basis, just like when I see teams go year in and year out without a push, I have to think the same thing.
The logical flaw is that you somehow think that an extremely small sample size is giving you a significant result. What does it matter if Cleveland never pushed on a 3 in the last 10 years or whatever you are using? That is only 160 games. How many were lined +/-3? Maybe 25-30? You can't draw any significant conclusion from that.
The buy on/off a number has absolutely nothing to do with the teams involved, it has to do with the fundamentals of the game. Meaning teams are going to win by 3 or 7 more often becuase they score in increments of 3 or 7 most often. (actually teams lined 5 will land on 3 more often than 5 for this very reason but that is a different story). This is a basic property of the game itself, it makes no difference if the teams are playing in New York or St Louis. Furthermore, making any kind of "team trend" defies common sense. Cleveland is not even remotely the same team it was 2 years ago, let alone 10. Coaching staffs change, players change, etc, etc at a fairly high frequency. What woud be the underlying reason for one team to push on 3 more than another over an extended period?
If the 7 is not worth 10 cents you must be making a killing at Pinnacle. If you look at their week 1 lines, they have Tennessee +7.5 -115. In the drop down menu, you can choose +7 -102, that is a 13 cent difference, clearly a bargain for you. Furthermore you can take that +7 -102 down to +6.5 +110, another 12 cents. Since it is clearly not worth 10 cents, I assume you take all +7.5 lines down to +6.5 and give yourself that extra 25 cents?
They charge generally 11-14 cents for the buy through 7 across the board in the NFL. If you are correct, then Pinnacle is making a MAJOR error and should be broke by now. I am surprised the sharps haven't caught on to it and bankrupted them.
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raiders72001
Registered Member
Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1215
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Posted 8/30/2005 7:13 PM (GMT -5) |
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Worth of 1/2 point from 6.5 to 7
Wins 50
Losses 40.4
Pushes 9.6
50 = 40.4 a
a = 50/40.4
a = 1.2376
1.2373 - 1.1 = .1376 = 13.76 cents
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