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raiders72001
Registered Member

Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1164

Posted 8/29/2005 6:36 AM (GMT -5)

Plays for:
Mon August 29

Dogs Formula:
YTD Performance:
(-) 2.75 units (based on 1 unit per play)

Yesterday's Recap:
(-) 3.27 units (based on 1 unit per play)

American League:
--Texas won - Twins finally lose a heartbreaking loss with a Santana start, as his luck finally turns against him. This was the kind of game we had lost to him several times this year.
--Toronto lost - as good as Toronto has been as a dog since the break, they were no match for the torrid Indians
--Detroit lost

National League:
--Florida lost - surprising how Beckett got beat up in Chicago
--Washington lost
--Mets lost
--Milwaukee lost
--Arizona won

Game Times are Eastern Standard

Dog Plays are in CAPS

----------------------------------------------------

Dogs Formula

See below for our line grading policy. It will explain how we are coming up with our official plays each day and how we are grading our official plays. Or re-read the "Dogs Line Policy" email that was sent out.

===========

Notes:

Some interesting stats about Arizona:
1) They have the worst bullpen ERA since the St. Louis Browns in 1950. Their bullpen ERA is over 6.00.
2) They have the worst record as a 2nd place team this deep into the season in MLB history. That gives you an idea of how bad the NL West is. It's historically bad.

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We mention how lucky Santana of Minnesota has been this year (his luck finally caught up with him Sunday). Roger Clemens has to be the hardest luck pitcher this season. Why? He has pitched 5 games of shutout baseball only to have Houston get no runs behind him. Yesterday was a case in point. He shuts down the weak-hitting Dodgers, only to have his bullpen blow it in the 9th inning...and lose 1-0. That is enough to make a pitcher lose his sanity...or enough to make a 43-year-old man stay home with his family next season.

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Mets lost a great opportunity this past weekend in losing 2 of 3 to the Giants. Now, they have dropped in the Wild Card pack and could be too far back to catch Atlanta for any divisional winning aspirations.

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NL Wild Card Outlook:

Houston is falling back in the Wild Card chase, and one of the biggest surprises for us in the past couple weeks is how they cannot take advantage of an incredibly soft schedule, losing series after series to losing clubs lately.

They still have the easiest schedule in September, but it is now questionable as to whether or not they can take advantage of it--- because the past couple weeks, they could not.

Philly, the Mets, and Florida all face primarily NL East division foes in September, which means they are likely to all beat up on each other. The Mets and Florida have bad draws, as they still have to face St. Louis in a series. The Mets have 4 in St. Louis, another reason why we don't expect them to make the playoffs. Although the Mets do finish with a series at home against Colorado.

Philly's schedule is not for the faint of heart, either. Their schedule in September is brutal, assuming Washington still has pride in winning at that point. This is not a knock against the Nationals in particular, but rather several teams just fold like a house of cards down the stretch. Mental fatigue sets in once they realize their season is over. Some teams no longer have the will to win. The Nats could be a candidate for that type of behavior in September.

As we said two weeks ago, if Houston does not win the Wild Card, it's their own dern fault. They have a soft schedule and they are blowing it.

We do still expect Atlanta to hold on to the NL East title, so we don't factor them into the Wild Card chase.

As much as we liked the Nats to win something this year, we do not consider them to be a factor to win the Wild Card but they will have an incredibly important role as spoiler in September. All NL East teams will try to beat up on them to gain ground and make the playoffs. So, it might just be the Nats who decide which team will win the Wild Card.

================

Final Line Grading Policy for Marginal Dogs:

In the event that the play changes from the overnight newsletter, the closing line at Wagerline.com will be used to grade the game:
http://www.wagerline.com/mlb.asp

The exception to this is if Wagerline mistakenly posts no line for the game (NL) or when Wagerline mistakenly posts the game twice. In such cases, Pinnacle's closing line will be used as an emergency backup source.

When we refer to "Pinnacle's closing line," we're referring to the posted closing line at theRx.com for the line from Pinnacle sportsbook that is that webpage.

Here's where you will find those emergency backup closing lines:
http://lines.therx.com/livelines/lines.html?sport=mlb&refresh=0.=0

================

Check out the underdog lines at Bowmans.com and Pinnacle to improve your results.

American League:

OAKLAND +106 @ Baltimore, 3PM...Oakland has been extremely streaky lately, going from a torrid streak to a drought, then this latest hot streak. Orioles counter with a reasonably good pitcher.
OAK: K. Saarloos (9-6, 3.92)
BAL: E. Bedard (6-5, 3.20)

DETROIT +122 @ Cleveland, 7PM...Tigers have not fared well as a dog the past several weeks. There's hope here with Bonderman. Elarton is never a lock to win.
DET: J. Bonderman (14-10, 4.27)
CLE: S. Elarton (7-7, 4.74)

Chicago @ TEXAS +135, 8PM...This is obviously a pitching mismatch, and despite yesterday's win, Texas has really struggled since the All-Star Break. This is our biggest longshot of the day.
CWS: M. Buehrle (14-6, 2.99)
TEX: J. Domínguez (1-3, 4.40)

National League:

St. Louis @ FLORIDA +111, 1PM...It is here were the agonzingly tough schedule begins for Florida. They'll either have to step up, or they'll drift out of it. The good news for them is that both the Mets and Philly also have rough September schedules. Besides Clemens, no one in baseball has pitched better this year than Carpenter. Marlins counter with Burnett, who is no slouch. Overrated, but no slouch.

If Florida wins the Wild Card, this will be a playoff preview.
STL: C. Carpenter (18-4, 2.34)
FLA: A. Burnett (12-7, 2.90)

WASHINGTON +121 @ Atlanta, 7:30PM...While Philly, Florida, and the Mets have a rough stretch coming, Atlanta goes back home to face the Nats and the Reds this week. Braves had bad series against LA and San Diego in their last homestand. Patterson is a good match for Sosa, but the Nats lack of offense is the concern.
WAS: J. Patterson (8-4, 2.43)
ATL: J. Sosa (9-2, 2.56)

LOS ANGELES +134 @ Chicago, 8PM...Dodgers beat Houston 2 of 3 in LA this past weekend, a surprise that was punctuated by them beating Houston in a game where Clemens started. Lucky for LA, they just needed one run to win it. Both pitchers are fairly evenly matched, and both are subpar.
LAD: D. Houlton (4-7, 4.86)
CHC: J. Williams (4-6, 4.74)

ARIZONA +144 @ San Diego, 10PM...Padres have been soft lately, losing to Colorado more than you would expect this past series. Hard to believe that a 1st place team that is under .500 could basically coast to the division title, but that is what the Padres' good fortune has given them this year. They just might be the first team to win a divisional title with a losing record. Williams is beatable, but so is Ortiz, whose career has taken a nosedive.
ARI: R. Ortiz (4-8, 6.95)
SD: W. Williams (6-10, 5.14)

RPM
Welcome to TOW

Date Joined Jul 2005
Total Posts : 4571

Posted 8/29/2005 7:23 AM (GMT -5)

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