The Offshore Wire Forum

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Posted By : bigboydan - 4/8/2005 7:05 PM

i've seen this mentioned a few times on the forums that straight bets are really the only way to bet the games in bases. but, over the last couple of years i have noticed that 70% of the games played usualy end up being a 2 or more run type score at the end of the game.

how much value do you feel is out there betting baseball games on the run line opposed to a straight up type wager.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/8/2005 9:35 PM

if you have the database and math skills, you will often find a lot of good bets on the +1.5

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/8/2005 10:53 PM

One way that I thing that RLs can be beat is when totals are extremely high or low. I wish Mach were still around to help but here's a general chart. I used Pinny lines as a guide comparing RL to money line and saw no advantage.

Home teams
-280 = -1.5 -140
-270 = -1.5
-260 = -1.5
-250 = -1.5
-240 = -1.5 -115
-230 = -1.5
-220 = -1.5
-210 = -1.5
-200 = -1.5 -105
-190 = -1.5 +100
-180 = -1.5 +105
-170 = -1.5 +110
-160 = -1.5 +120
-150 = -1.5 +130
-140 = -1.5 +140
-130 = -1.5 +150
-120 = -1.5 +160
-110 = -1.5 +170

Away teams

-280 = -1.5
-270 = -1.5
-260 = -1.5
-250 = -1.5
-240 = -1.5
-230 = -1.5
-220 = -1.5
-210 = -1.5
-200 = -1.5=-130
-190 = -1.5=-125
-180 = -1.5=-120
-170 = -1.5=-115
-160 = -1.5=-110
-150 = -1.5= 100
-140 = -1.5=+110
-130 = -1.5=+120
-120 = -1.5=+130
-110 = -1.5=+135

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/8/2005 11:58 PM

i see tonights redsox/jays game was the prime example of why people love the straight wager.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/9/2005 1:14 AM

Info stolen from Peep

Run total frequency distribution.

<=5 runs = 9530 games = 21.5%.
6 runs = 2917 games = 6.5%.
7 runs = 4589 games = 10.4%.
8 runs = 3234 games =7.3%.
9 runs = 4297 games = 9.7%.
10 runs = 2949 games = 6.7%
11 runs = 3565 games = 8.1%.
12 runs = 2234 games = 5.0%.
13 runs = 2613 games = 5.9%.
>=14 runs = 8322 games =18.8%.

Percentage runline is "right on".

6 runline.--24 games--2 games--16%
7 runline--2580 games--275 games--10.6%
8 runline--5717 games--474 games--8.2%
9 runline--6298 games--622 games--9.9%
10 runline-4470 games--270 games--6%
11 runline-2084 games--179 games--8.6%
12 runline--459 games--20 games---4.3%

TOTALS: 21,632 games 1842 right on runline 8.5%

Lined 6.5 Lands 6 - 7.7% Lands 7 - 8.9%
Lined 7.5 Lands 7 - 11.8% Lands 8 - 8%
Lined 8.5 Lands 8 - 8.1% Lands 9 - 10.6%
Lined 9.5 Lands 9 - 9.6% Lands 10 - 6.9%
Lined 10.5 Lands 10 - 7% Lands 11 - 9.8%
Lined 11.5 Lands 11 - 10.5% Lands 12 - 3.4%
Lined 12.5 Lands 12 - 6% Lands 13 - 6%

Ten years, I think 1990-2000 or so.

I used a database Ben Dover posted for us at Rx to get them. It was 22,000 games or so. It was last year that I did them, so I don't remember much more. I could run them on 1996-2002 now, but I don't think it would be all that much different.

7 and 9 are relatively "hot", but in baseball any score can happen any one game and the db reflects this. While the total number does provide a great median for that number (it does split then U/O quite accurately), "9" does not hit with any significantly more frequency when the game is lined "9" than when it is not.

Post Edited (raiders72001) : 4/9/2005 1:17:40 AM (GMT-4)

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/9/2005 1:20 AM

Neil

In a sample of more than 22,000 games, I get 29.03% of 0ne run games.