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| Posted By : bigboydan - 4/9/2005 3:29 PM |
i never did understand why people would waste there money on such a type of service.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : Dante - 4/10/2005 12:40 AM |
VERY sad if you have to pay for picks ...You can flip a coin for free...thats what the touts do |
| Posted By : drunkguy - 4/10/2005 1:48 AM |
not true
there are some very good reasons to pay for picks
I have done so on multiple occassions |
| Posted By : bigboydan - 4/10/2005 3:00 AM |
well next time you need a winner just pay me for a pick or two DG. 
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/10/2005 4:10 AM |
| I did so when I was young. I'll never do it again. |
| Posted By : TOW - 4/10/2005 2:18 PM |
| Well, I gather a lot of players do pay for picks....touts seem to prosper year after year....would you define these players as ..."lazy", recreational, or simply punters seeking additional info ? |
| Posted By : drunkguy - 4/10/2005 3:19 PM |
For the most part, people using touts are falling for the "great-rich quick" scheme. They like to gamble, but are losing money, so they look for "profesional help". But, I can think of a lot of good reasons to pay for picks. the most obvious:
1. If it is a big-name tout who can move the line (Root, Fiest, etc) knowing what side they are on for their biggest games often lets you grab the side at a slow-moving shop and then buy-back on the other side at a more recreational-type shop after the tout-followers have pounded it. Sets you up with good middles and/or scalps. At the very least, if you like one of the sides it lets you time your bets to get the best number (i.e. play the tout side early, or go against the tout side late).
2. If your handicapper provides information with his releases (e.g. weekly stats that he manipulates, power ratings, etc) and it is something that you use anyway, it is sometimes easier to just pay him to do that work for you. You get the numbers that you want, he does all the work, and it is in many cases cheaper for you (in terms of time and energy). Of course you have to understand exactly how he is deriving his numbers.
3. There are actually some legitimate handicappers that win consistently. If you do your background work you can find them. I look for a couple of years of solid, documented records. You can also usually tell the legitimacy by how they handle themselves after losing days, are they keeping accurate records without using excuses, do they chase when down, do you understand their methods for making selections, etc. Lots of things that need to be taken into consideration, and it is like looking for a needle in a haystack sometimes. But there are a few out there.
I have signed up for handicappers for all of the above reasons. |
| Posted By : bigboydan - 4/10/2005 3:38 PM |
i'm sorry DG but, i just can justify paying for picks at all. no matter what the reasoning might be.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/10/2005 4:00 PM |
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99% are frauds. The 1% are those DG mentioned. Losing punters that need action and are losing on their own pay for touts. They fool themselves into believing that the touts will help them win money.
Touts use any method that they can to get business.They may have a losing record in the NFL but have a 6-2 reord on Monday night. The tout will post the Mon. recors but ignore the overall record. They will call and demean you. They will call you a loser and say if you want to start winning then start using our picks. Another old method used was giving free picks. They gave half the cusomers one side and the other half the other side. They kept doing this and of courseone group would go 4-0 and fall in love with the tout.
It's the same with posters on the boards. If a guy gets hot everyone will follow him. One tout that had great success was Doc on his Big Ten play of the year. I forget the exact record but he won approx 10 of his Big Ten plays of the year a row. Everyone followed his Big Ten play of the year, after that and the line would move 5 to 7 points.
It's really simple mathematics. There are thousands of touts and posters. . Hitting ten in a row is 1 out of 1024. Use a binomial distrubution chart and you will find that will so many touts that lots are bound to hit ten in a row.
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| Posted By : drunkguy - 4/10/2005 4:10 PM |
Bob McCune had a section in one of his books where he went through all the "tout schemes" like giving out one side to half the callers and the other side to the other half.
Think I may have it at home, maybe I will post it tonight if I remember. |
| Posted By : bigboydan - 4/10/2005 6:13 PM |
people who fall into these touts scams lack comon sense plain and simple.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/16/2005 12:29 AM |
it's tout season so, how many of you guys got the emails,phone calls,mailings,ect,ect already trying to get your bussiness.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : onlòóker - 8/16/2005 12:43 AM |
| Ive never paid for a tout service. Never will. |
| Posted By : Shaun - 8/16/2005 3:45 PM |
Drunkguy,
You raise some very good points. If you are, for example someone who works alot during the week, you may not have time to manipulate all the data. A good capper can do this leg work for you, so when Sunday comes around you can make informed decisions. The time this will save you might be worth the $$ if you don't have the time to do it yourself.
Manage the Book, not the Player
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| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/16/2005 5:25 PM |
shaun, now that you see there maybe points to this one. what are the pro's and con's to buying picks and, not buying pick in your opinion.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : RPM - 8/16/2005 10:21 PM |
Shaun said...
Drunkguy,
You raise some very good points. If you are, for example someone who works alot during the week, you may not have time to manipulate all the data. A good capper can do this leg work for you, so when Sunday comes around you can make informed decisions. The time this will save you might be worth the $$ if you don't have the time to do it yourself.
i disagree. you are better off saving the money the tout will charge you and flipping a coin....
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| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/16/2005 11:00 PM |
i can only imagine the excuses they give these players, after they give them a loser :D
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : drunkguy - 8/16/2005 11:20 PM |
RPM said...
i disagree. you are better off saving the money the tout will charge you and flipping a coin....
It's clear no one has worked with a reputable person before
for instance, for football I pay someone, he sends me each week a spreadsheet of complete matchup stats that you cannot get anywhere else unless you have a database and can manipulate it yourself, not the kind of stuff you can look up on covers. This saves me the trouble of doing the legwork all year. That alone is worth the price I pay. Now, he also happens to have a long-term documented winning record, so that is a bonus. He basically send out ALL the information he is using to make the picks. Whether I follow them blindly or not, I now have a lot of unique information that is not publicly available.
This is what you pay a reputable handicapper for.
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| Posted By : RPM - 8/16/2005 11:23 PM |
ok drunk. how much do you pay, and what percentage have you hit in the past?
also how much you bet per game is important... |
| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/16/2005 11:28 PM |
drunkguy said...
It's clear no one has worked with a reputable person before
DG, I didn't think there was such a reputable tout out there.
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : Judge - 8/17/2005 1:56 PM |
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Never have, never will. Have know a lot of people who have. Not only lose money to books, also out what they spent on tout. The ones who fared the worst were the ones who won at first. They think they have something, increase bets, and get drilled.
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| Posted By : drunkguy - 8/17/2005 6:41 PM |
RPM said...
ok drunk. how much do you pay, and what percentage have you hit in the past?
also how much you bet per game is important...
For instance, 1 guy I use:
$200 cost last football season for NFL and NCAA combined:
123-91 57.50% +43.70%
that is betting an average of 2-3% of bankroll per play
As i said, the analysis is what I pay for more than picks, but you certainly can't complain with a monitored record like that
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| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/17/2005 11:36 PM |
Judge said...
Never have, never will. Have know a lot of people who have. Not only lose money to books, also out what they spent on tout. The ones who fared the worst were the ones who won at first. They think they have something, increase bets, and get drilled.
well said judge
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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| Posted By : Ace - 8/18/2005 2:29 AM |
| I never have and never will. Only a fool would do that. |
| Posted By : bigboydan - 8/18/2005 3:36 AM |
Ace said...
Only a fool would do that.
damn ace, tell us how you really feel why don't ya
a good capper is only as good as his info.
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