The Offshore Wire Forum

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Posted By : bigboydan - 4/10/2005 3:07 AM

are there any wierd trends you look for/at. or do you look at the surface type trends.(you know pitching stats,weather,team batting averages,hot hitters/pitchers,ect,ect)

basicly, i guess what i'm asking is this. just how deep do you dig for info.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/13/2005 1:18 AM

I go either of two ways...

statisitical (some would call technical handicapping or math-based) - what I am most comfortable with, I am very happy if I know the number i am looking for and have some reason that I arrived at it

contrarian - look to go against public opinion, teams that have overperformed, or bet on teams that have underperformed if I think the matchup is favorable.

I think line-shopping is still underrated and know that that adds a ton of value...I am using 8 books at the moment, for baseball that usually means I am betting into a 5c or better line, so even if I make a mistake it does not kill me

I avoid trend-handicapping and "fundamental handicapping" (matchups) unless it falls under the contrarian mode

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/13/2005 2:16 AM

i think surface trends are good for some what of a guide. but, you gotta really dig alot deeper than that though. i feel %'s are more needed. for example, lets use hoops for this example. free throw % fg %, certain players that are so called "lazy/sloppy" as well as total team breakdowns all the way down the the assistant coaching.

a good capper is only as good as his info.