The Offshore Wire Forum

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Posted By : bigboydan - 4/13/2005 12:53 PM

i liked to get everyones thoughts on this subject. because personaly i do feel they are nothing but sucker bets.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : TOW - 4/13/2005 1:01 PM

Good question BBD.

I recall a small player hitting an 8 teamer a couple of years ago...50 dollars to win 47K.....he wisely switched to $ 20 parlays, took out 45K and bought a new car with the money !

IMHO parlays are a typical product to attract recreational players. As long as punters play with reputable operations that will honor their winnings it can be a fun wagering option, high risk/high return.

On the other hand I would advise players not to wager too much, 10-20 dollars is the right amount for 6 teamers upward.....hard ti hit, but extremely rewarding when that happens.

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/13/2005 1:12 PM

anything over 4-teamers, you are getting terrible odds

3-teamers you have a slight mathematical advantage at 6-1. Very big advantage at 7-1 that some shops pay. The 7-1 is essentially "juice free"

2 teamers are not that much worse than straight bets

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/13/2005 5:11 PM

drunkguy said...

2 teamers are not that much worse than straight bets

i feel they are because you have to win both games in order to win. and, as easy as that might sound it's not that easy to do. but, if you play the 2 games flat and split you only lose the vig considering if you bet both of those games for the same amount of units.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/13/2005 6:04 PM

yes, but let's say over 200 games you are going to pick 100 right

straight: lose 100@ -110 (-$11000), win 100 @ +100 (10000) = you lose $1000

parlay: 200 games gives you 100 2-team parlays. On average you are going to get 25 of those right and lose 75

win 25 @ +260 (6500), lose 75 at -100 (-7500) = you lose $1000

same difference

your variability goes up because you have to win 2 in a row, but long term it is close to the same thing because you are compensated more for those occassions

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/13/2005 6:05 PM

a reason people have posted for NOT playing parlays is that you will not always get the best line on both games at the same shop

a reason people have posted for PLAYING parlays is that you can circumvent limits (i.e. if a book has a $2000 limit on a game, you can bet the $2000 on the side you like, but you can now parlay it with something else to get even more money on that bet)

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/13/2005 11:10 PM

drunkguy said...

a reason people have posted for PLAYING parlays is that you can circumvent limits (i.e. if a book has a $2000 limit on a game, you can bet the $2000 on the side you like, but you can now parlay it with something else to get even more money on that bet)

well DG that is a double edge sword there sir. what happens if you win the one bet and lose the other one that you put in that parly. and, besides that your theroy on the limits books have on flat bets doesn't float with me because, there are a 100+ other books out there you can bet at if you wanted to bet more than the original book will allow you to bet.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/14/2005 12:38 AM

Huge advantage on parlays if you are good. Huge disadvantage if you are bad.

Say you play 100games at $100/game and hit 55% winners.

At -110

55*100= $5500 45*(-1.1)= -$4950 profit= $550

------------------------------------------------------

At -1.05

55*100= 5500 45*(-1.05)= -4725 profit = $755

--------------------------------------------------

3 team parlay paying 6-1 @ 55% winners

Win 16.6375 games Lose 83.3625 games

16.6375 * 100 * 6= $9982.50

83.3625 * -100 = -$8336.25

Profit = $1646.25

-----------------------

7-1

Win 16.6375 * 100 * 7 = $11646.25

83.3625 * -100 = -$8336.25

Profit = 11646.25 - 8336.25 = $3310.00 profit

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/14/2005 6:43 AM

raiders72001 said...

Huge advantage on parlays if you are good. Huge disadvantage if you are bad.

raiders, you can throw all the math at me that you want to it's still a suckers bet. because, over time you are gonna lose no matter how good of capper you might be it's a proven fact.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/14/2005 11:26 AM

Proven fact is that 7-1 three team parlay is the best bet that you can make in sports betting. Only play with no juice. That's one good reason to play at BCN. I made a killing at BHB on 7-1 3 teamers. I stopped playing there when they had troubles. Lots of ways to exploit 7-1 3 teamers if you are good at predicting line movement.

Post Edited (raiders72001) : 4/14/2005 11:29:13 AM (GMT-4)

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/14/2005 7:58 PM

raiders, just how many times does a capper and a good capper at that go 3-0 and make money off on parlys though even at 7-1. i'm sorry, but your arugement does't fly with me bud.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/14/2005 10:08 PM

A 50/50 capper hits 1 out of 8 in a 3 teamer.

Loses 7 games = -700

Wins 1 = +700

Break Even bet.

50/50 with -110

Loses 4 = -440

Wins 4 = +400

Loss of 40

50/50 at -105

Loses 4 = -420

Wins 4 = 400

Loss of 20.

7-1 three team parlay is the only bet that you can go 50/50 without losing money.

Dan- You're a craps player. It's the same as taking odds. It's a bet that has no juice bet.

Post Edited (raiders72001) : 4/14/2005 10:13:01 PM (GMT-4)

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/15/2005 12:22 AM

raiders72001 said...

Dan- You're a craps player. It's the same as taking odds. It's a bet that has no juice bet.

no it's not raiders if your talking about hardways and betting like an any craps type bet. pass line bets and just playing the numbers flat gives you alot better chance of winning at craps.

hardways, yo bets, any crap, and all forms of those sucker bets are just that suckers bets.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/15/2005 11:31 AM

I'm talking about making a pass line bet and then putting money behind the pass line bet after the shooter has rolled the point. The money behind the pass line money is taking odds. Also if you make a come bet and the shooter rolls a 9 that money is placed on the 9. You can then say odds on the 9 and the dealer will put the money behind the 9. If the next roll is a 9 then you get even money on the 9 but 3-2 on the odds bet. 4 and 10 pays 2-1. 5 and 9 pays 3-2. 6 and 8 pays 6-5 which are all true odds. This is the same as playing a 3 teamer at 7-1.

Post Edited (raiders72001) : 4/15/2005 11:36:59 AM (GMT-4)

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/15/2005 12:20 PM

playing the odds behind the pass line is the best bet on a craps table raiders. and that type of bet hits alot more than 3 team parlys.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : drunkguy - 4/15/2005 12:34 PM

bigboydan said...
playing the odds behind the pass line is the best bet on a craps table raiders. and that type of bet hits alot more than 3 team parlys.

I think the point raiders is trying to make is that the "free odds" bet and the 7-1 3-team parlay both have exactly the same house advantage

zero

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/15/2005 2:16 PM

exactly

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/15/2005 5:16 PM

i understand what raiders is saying here. but, craps isn't at all suckers game. betting prop bets in craps is and, thats basicly the same thing as betting parlys.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : TOW - 4/17/2005 10:15 AM

I personally like to play some suicide 6, 7, 8 teamers on bases every now and then....better odds than a lottery ticket..

Posted By : bigboydan - 4/17/2005 10:59 AM

thats true it's better odds than the lotto sir. but, it still would be like a million to one shot if you ask me.

a good capper is only as good as his info.

Posted By : raiders72001 - 4/17/2005 12:21 PM

ML parlays are the same odds as playing the ML on each single bet for that team. No advantage or disadvantage. The only problem with this is that you are taking ML parlays all from one book. If you shop you can get better odds on some of the games. This is the downside to many team ML parlay.

Posted By : merlyn - 4/17/2005 1:51 PM

raiders72001 said...

Huge advantage on parlays if you are good. Huge disadvantage if you are bad.

Say you play 100games at $100/game and hit 55% winners.

At -110

55*100= $5500 45*(-1.1)= -$4950 profit= $550

------------------------------------------------------

At -1.05

55*100= 5500 45*(-1.05)= -4725 profit = $755

--------------------------------------------------

3 team parlay paying 6-1 @ 55% winners

Win 16.6375 games Lose 83.3625 games

16.6375 * 100 * 6= $9982.50

83.3625 * -100 = -$8336.25

Profit = $1646.25

-----------------------

7-1

Win 16.6375 * 100 * 7 = $11646.25

83.3625 * -100 = -$8336.25

Profit = 11646.25 - 8336.25 = $3310.00 profit

Raiders is entirely, 100% correct. But due note, this occurs only in the perfect world of 55% where in the 3 team parlay - when Team A wins, Team B wins 55% of the time and in those cases Team C wins 55% of the time. If a player has the bankroll to manage the swings of luck, and he can hit 55% in the long, long run... Parlays will absolutely make that player significantly more money. Pure Fact. Its a lower paying bet than a straight bet when the player averages a certain percenatge of win... cross that magic line in win rate % (price adjusted) and the parlay now becomes a more profitable wager.

Posted By : merlyn - 4/17/2005 1:56 PM

raiders72001 said...
A 50/50 capper hits 1 out of 8 in a 3 teamer.

Loses 7 games = -700

Wins 1 = +700

Break Even bet.

50/50 with -110

Loses 4 = -440

Wins 4 = +400

Loss of 40

50/50 at -105

Loses 4 = -420

Wins 4 = 400

Loss of 20.

7-1 three team parlay is the only bet that you can go 50/50 without losing money.

Dan- You're a craps player. It's the same as taking odds. It's a bet that has no juice bet.

Raiders, again... is absolutely 100% correct about the above... the 7 - 1 payout on the 3 team parlay (when the underlying teams prices are equal to their opponents (meaning both sides have the same juice) then 7 - 1 is Juice Free. This is simple math for a sharp player and cannot be argued with. In my early days, when I was trained by some of the very sharpest in the biz... these calculations we're "sharpie 101" and nothing more. Raiders... I have yet to read anything from you regarding sports betting math that isn't 100% spot on. hop

Posted By : merlyn - 4/17/2005 2:04 PM

drunkguy said...

bigboydan said...
playing the odds behind the pass line is the best bet on a craps table raiders. and that type of bet hits alot more than 3 team parlys.

I think the point raiders is trying to make is that the "free odds" bet and the 7-1 3-team parlay both have exactly the same house advantage

zero

100% correct... basic math... in fact... it wouldn't matter how many teams are in a parlay if the payout is true odds... How do you get that? take 2 to the power of the number of teams in the parlay. Subtract 1 from that. If this is what they pay you for hitting the parlay, you are getting "true odds" which is what they call the odds the crap player gets behind his passline bet/come bet when he establsihes a point.

Example - 6 team parlay 2 to the 6th power equals 64. If they pay you 63-1 then you are getting true odds. 2 to the 3rd power = 8... 8 - 1 = 7... BCN uses the 7 - 1 payout for the 3 team parlay as a reason to play at their shop and I assume they hope the player makes other wagers. If they give volume bonesses on top and all the player does is play 3 teamers where the "juiceless" price of his side equals 50% or better. They should reconsider that player's business.