| The Offshore Wire Forum > Offshore Gambling Information > Offshore Sportbooks > why do casino bar "advantage players" but not sportsbooks? |
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TOW
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Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 1866
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Posted 4/8/2005 2:46 PM (GMT -5) |
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| I doubt this could be the scenario. Books need wise action to "balance the board". Going fully recreational would expose them to gamble because they'd end up being one sided on any major event. |
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drunkguy
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Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 945
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Posted 4/8/2005 3:00 PM (GMT -5) |
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yes, but if they know the "right side" and can keep action there at a minimum, they should actually be able to profit even more
take a look at SIA's business model...
they can go all recreational, but move the lines far enough that the rec bettors are getting the worst of it, while limiting their exposure from the sharps
I imagine they are very heavy on NFL favs every week, but by adding a point (or sometimes more) to what the players are laying, they are giving themselves a big advantage |
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merlyn
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Date Joined Mar 2005
Total Posts : 65
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Posted 4/8/2005 3:02 PM (GMT -5) |
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Simple... an advantage player in a sportsbook is not known to be one until profiled as such. As soon as the player is identified, his limits are reduced (or he is in fact thrown out like some books in fact do). The books who retain the player (albeit at reduced limits) are able to turn this winner into profit for the book by shading their lines towards the sharper action. That means that the players who are not exactly sharp but yet still do a bit of price shopping find the bargains at these books who have shaded to the sharper sides. Meaning if the square player is looking for the "non sharp side" and does price shopping, he bets at the book that in fact wants his business and gets it by offering a slightly better line... In the long run, the sharp player (at reduced limits) actually becomes a positive for the book. The management of this practice must walk a fine line and know its math and store to determine what limits are acceptable for the sharper players.
Another fact is that a sharp number can be bet only once or maybe twice (unless sharps are in opposition which sometimes happens) but in cases where there's only one sharp side, there is only one bet that is taken and now the book is pretty safe. And in fact if aggressive may move ahead of the pack (in cases where a line eventually moves quite far). A great example is how Pinnacle moved in the Colts Pats playoff game... they FLEW down to pk and even -1 Colts way ahead of the pack... but I saw them bouncing mostly all around the -1 Pats and PK. Yet, I observed near game time many many books went even further... Those books who had "moved with the board" or lagged as most do because they also were awaiting action, ended up moving harder later as all that money flew in on the Colts... this they exposed themselves to much greater calamity if -1 either side had landed. In addition, they got the bulk of the intelligent buyback as they went further than Pinny... That game may have been good for most books but in the long run finding the number quickly and then staying relatively close to that number which in fact turns out to be the closer, in the long run, smooths out cash flow swings and will place a superior hold% on the bottom line. Both critical for sportbook health!
In Black Jack, the advantage is based on a mathematical scenario only. That scenario is patiently waited for and pounced on by the sharp player. Yet that same advantage applies to all other players playing... no one is "offsetting" the exposure and no one can be sucked into the other side because there isn't one. In fact, a square BJ player, seeing the sharpie next to him pumping up his bets is more likely to get bolder himself. He certainly would bet less because some guy next to him is betting more in most cases.
Post Edited (merlyn) : 4/8/2005 3:08:46 PM (GMT-4)
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